tv Closing Bell CNBC January 23, 2013 3:00pm-4:00pm EST
five-year highs right now. moving to the upside. seems as if we've got like a 78-point rally going on there on the dow. moving towards the close. one more hour of trading. >> all right, everybody. get on facebook and be sad. i'll see you tomorrow. >> "closing bell" is next. >> she lip synched the thing? i had no idea. >> far more humble pie, come on. >> welcome to "closing bell." i'm bill griffith here at the new york stock exchange. another winning day for stocks so far. >> they all lip synch. i'm michelle caruso-cabrera. following another big market move today. the dow and s&p 500 on track to close at fresh five-year highs and we keep saying that day after day. the dow is within 400 points of an all-time high. plus, maria is going to be bringing us some can't miss reports out of daffio, including her interview with jamie dimon, and he's all fired up about the heat that the banking industry is taking. his comments making waves all over the world.
maria with jamie dimon coming up. >> also with us here at the new york stock exchange. the ceo of coach, lou frankfurt. big miss on earnings. that stock among the worst per formers on the s&p 500 which is ironic since lou last year was named the ceo that created the most value for shareholders in 2012. today he's biggest -- the biggest decliner among the s&ps. we'll talk to lou frankfurt coming up in just a few minutes here. >> and then there's apple. the earnings report everyone is watching and waiting for. some think this could be a watershed moment for the iconic company. we'll be doing special coverage when apple reports. >> let's show you how the markets are trading. no lip synching here. dow up 75 points, just off a high that was set a moment ago. up 79, but, again, getting ever closer to that 14,000 number which we haven't seen since december of 2007 and we're at about 400 points away from the all-time high which was set in the fall of '70. the s&p. the same thing.
the dow and the s&p, five-year highs. the nasdaq, that's up 13 points and there's the s&p now very, very close to 1,500. a gain of about three points at this hour. >> the dow starting to sniff, not just five-year high territory, but a few points away from an all-time high. >> i think i said that. >> in today's -- aim sorry. >> i was lip synching. >> michael pento with us and jim bianco of bianco research and robert zagunis from oregon, jensen management, and thanks so much for joining us. michael, i have to start with you. you've been 50% in cash all this time, and we ear setting these highs. >> sorry. in january we went almost 90% long in stocks. and enjoying this right up and i'll tell you why. money supply is growing at a 10% annualized rate, up 8.9% year over year. where is the money going to go? not in the bond market. going to the stock market. the republicans are incapable of
embracing austerity. the government is borrowing the fed's money into existence, and it's driving another bubble in stock prices, what a surprise. >> all of which were the reasons why you were staying away from the market so now you're throwing in the towel on the political agenda. >> it wasn't so much driven into investors' heads that congress was incapable of embracing austerity. now we know. look, the sequestration was supposed to happen january 1st. punt on that one. debt ceiling, supposed to hit that. now it will be steve 19. there's no austerity. >> what michael is saying in a very long-winded way is don't fight the fed. not fighting the fed. the fed, europe, japan's now with b to go hog wild. >> sure, sure. >> the whole world is printing new money. >> abe, the new prime minister of japan, japan is at least discussing a new quantitative easing scheme for them. they are going to be printing a lot of yen. >> the point is all that tends to be good for assets like stocks? >> very stimulative. europe will have to start printing money as well to deal
with their issues so you don't want to fight that liquidity. >> earnings don't matter then? >> earnings do matter. i think probably revenue will matter a lot more than earnings by the end of 2013. earnings matter and fundamentals matter but the backdrop is we know what we think may not be relevant or what bernanke thinks is relative, he'll keep this a liquid environment for the foreseeable future. >> jim bianco, earnings matter. steve's liked to the earnings so far calling them robust. you're not so impressed though, are you? >> no. we've got 3% earnings growth maybe for the fourth quarter. estimates are for the fourth quarter on a year over year basis of something like 2%. 70% of companies have beaten estimates, the average since the end of the great recession in 2009. it's 72%. revenues are growing at around 3%. that's -- these are not great numbers. 5%, 6%. >> why is the market going higher then? >> what the other guests have said. money-printing. the fed, the bank of japan. you know, back in july when draghi said whatever it takes, they were the loosest central
bank and now they are the tightest central bank and everybody has moved out of them even though they haven't changed anything. money-printing matters. you're right. once you get past it. i don't see anything in earnings or revenues. >> what does that mean you do right now? what do you do? you buy stocks or don't you? >> buy them on a trade because the market is being pushed higher by easy central bank policy. that's been the case for the whole recession. >> you have to buy stocks now. >> go ahead, robert. >> if you take a look at the history of the growth in the united states from 1950 through 1999, the average growth was 3.6%, something like that annualized. since then it's been less than 2%. now, there's been a little bit of a perk up, but -- but the direction is positive, and if you start looking at how the businesses and the economy is doing and juxtapose that against the politicians who aren't behaving very well, you have to be positive regarding the situation for the future stocks. >> so you like stocks more for
the fundamentals than you do for any fed or congressional action right now. am i reading that right? >> absolutely, absolutely. i mean, for the third quarter of last year our stocks had earnings of over 6% which compares very favorable, and, you know, we're looking into the future and then we compare that to the general growth rates of the u.s. economy, and there's no question they are going to outperform so it has an impact. >> the imf lowered global growth numbers today, nobody seems to care because the money has to go some place and it's not going into the bond market. >> point well taken. in the past you talked about gold. >> was that long winded? >> we're about 15%, 20% in gold right now. listen, this is a stagflationry environment. going to get a lot worse. you have to own gold and oil. >> be globally diversified and multi-asset strategy. get engaged in security selection, stock research. as we move into the decelerating earnings cycle stock picking will matter. you've got to be more
disciplined in that multi-asset. >> you like health care, consumer discretionary, aclittle defensive with some of your plays. >> a little bit but leaning a little bit into that cyclical recovery. a 2%, 2.5% gdp, not a double dip recession in our estimation. ecb is taking a lot of the current lehman-like risk out of europe so that means fundamentals can bubble up to the top. security matters. >> let me be clear. we're living on borrowed time here. the government is so stupid not only in europe, japan and the united states, this is what they did. they took all of the debt on the private sector on to the public sector's balance sheet. >> i know. >> the central banks bought all that debt and monetized and guess what they want to do now, the governments want to create inflation, talk about a bubble in bonds waiting to burst. >> the question is when? you've got to go short. 2015. >> good to sigh, michael. >> thank you, gentlemen, for your thoughts on the markets. appreciate it very much. >> apple and netflix set to report, after the bell.
the results could be big market movers. >> julia boorstin and jon fortt with numbers to watch. jon, you first. >> the number for apple is iphone unit sales and the street would be happening with anything above 48 million units. ite phone is highest marketed product in apple's stable so when it outperforms or underperforms it stwings margins and eps pretty high. other numbers to watch, ipad sales and asia-pacific revenue, a decent proxy for emerging market growth before we get the china numbers on the call. julia, what are you looking at with netflix? >> jon, the netflix, the number we're watching is streaming subscriber numbers. wall street is expecting 27 million streaming subscribers and 5.5 million subscribers in the fourth quarter. wall street is projecting growth will be 7% and earnings per share will swing to a loss on higher international costs. i'll be back after the bell to
break down netflix's numbers and tomorrow morning we'll have our exclusive interview with ceo reed hastings. bill, back to you. >> that will be on "squawk box" and look forward to that tomorrow morning on cnbc. markets holding on to gains. near the highs of the day with the dow up 79 points and the s&p, what, about three points right now, but both very close to new benchmarks here. >> coming up, maria is in davos talking to ubs chairman axel weber and jpmorgan's jamie dimon about how the big banks are dealing with the brave new world of more regulations and thinner profit margins. >> why isn't jamie wearing an overcoat in. >> that's old video. >> have retailers have enough of luxury shopping, we'll talk to ceo lew frankfort and see what's happening in an interview you'll see right here only on cnbc. >> and don't take your eyes off
companile. company set to report earnings at 4:30, all the instant analysis you need right now. >> why wouldn't you want to watch us right now? >> i watch every day. >> thank you. with fidelity's new options platform, we've completely integrated every step of the process, making it easier to try filters and strategies... to get a list of equity options...
coach is by far the worst performing stock in the s&p 500 today. shares taking a big hit after holiday revenue numbers for the second quarter fell short of wall street forecasts. the stock is off by more than 15, almost 16%. >> sales in its biggest market, north america, dropped by 2%, although that's only the third quarterly decline they have seen in 11 years, so what's the story behind these numbers? joining us as he does, we're so closed he does on a quarterly base is, on an exclusive basis. welcome back ceo lew frankfort. >> glad to be here.
>> cut to the chase. here in north america, women's sales, saw lousy foot traffic in the quarter, didn't you? >> that's right. >> what happened? >> we were affected by a confluence of factors. first, mall and street traffic was down for everybody. second, it was a very promotional season, and we did not participate beyond our normal limited level of promotion. >> so everybody else is discounting, and you're not? >> most people are discounting. >> okay. >> in their full price propositions. in addition, we decks appearance intensified competition, especially in our department store channel here in the u.s. >> can i ask you something? >> look, shoppers are so fickle, right? and the fashion world is filled with examples in the past that when a product becomes so ubiquitous people don't want it anymore, right? we can look at fashion icon yves st. laurent, it's why armani never wanted to go public because you have to grow and
grow and grow and you get to the point where people are saying everybody else is wearing, that i don't want it anymore. have you hit that dangerous inflexion point because coach is so pervasive in north america? >> nothing in our research or in our experience suggests that that's the case. first we're in a very different category than the brands that you mentioned. we're in the accessory category. it's an extremely grand loyal category. second, we have a very diverse consumer, all ages, all attitudes. we also satisfy a very broad use of functions, and we have different expressions of coach, so we have product that's limited edition, that's only available in flagship stores. we sell many bags of well over $400. in fact, about 15% of our sales this past quarter were -- was -- was over $200 while our average bag is less than 300 and some bags are as low as 150.
>> what did you learn from that? i found that interesting. your higher-priced bags did better than some of the lower price points but yet we're in an environment where we're told the consumer is only looking for value right now or at least a cheaper price point. i know you can spin value one way or the other. >> look. the truth of it is that coach offers an incredibly affordable product for what is in the product and people perceive us as an excellent value. our products are made out of the best materials, highly well crafted, durable. they last a long time and one of our brand equities is that we do represent a good value so someone can purchase a coach bag at $400, $500 and a like bag from an international band would be much higher. >> so what do you have to do this quarter so that we don't see the same kind of deal you saw this last quarter, what changes? >> well, first, for context, we're an international brand. we have a thriving men's
business which is on track to grow by more than 50% this year. our asian business, international business was up 12% fueled by china. it was up by more than 40%. our digital business is growing rapidly so we do have many things in place to provide our growth platforms, both in the near term and long term. with regard to north america women's, we are introducing a transformational footwear assortment in over half of our stores. >> what does that mean, transformational footwear? >> we've recently brought in a new designer merchandising group to help create a much broader expression of footwear across all usages. previously we've been largely casual footwear brand, and today our footwear is going to cover day use, weekend play and the
like and we'll market it heavily. >> you know what caught my attention in your conference call with analysts, the word mobile. we hear that more and more among all retailers, and anybody -- we feel the heat here in television as well. it's not enough to come up with a compelling product. you've got to work the channels to find the consumer. >> absolutely. >> where they are doing the shopping, and they are shopping for coach using mobile technology as well. >> remarkably, 40% of the consumers who visited us on the internet to look at our full-priced products came via mobile devices. >> 40%. >> wow, wow. >> it's more than double last year, even though our sales from these consumers were in the area of 10% to 15% so it helps inform them. they brows and many go to a store but increasingly they buy online. >> i'm going to ask you a political question. >> sure. >> your fco on the call says a year ago you reported certain items, your tax rate was a lot lower than normal. $12 million. what you did was, she said, was
you made actual contributions to charity instead of delivering it to the bottom line and to shareholders. why did you do that? was that political? is that because of this situation right now the way we're talking about taxes in america? >> the short answer is no. we feel a responsibility to return to our community and for everything that they do, and we have created a foundation, and we focus on education. we focus on helping eliminate poverty in america, and we have very structured programs where we match employee gifts, and we're proud to save. >> you don't think the shareholders were angry about that or upset with that, or your first duty isn't to the shareholder? >> the shareholders would not have received -- would have received this and would have gone into our cash flow and more
generally we have very substantial cash flow. we have no doubt. we're able to invest at the levels we want. >> okay. >> we're in a situation where we are able to return to our communities across america. >> i should have probably asked this first, but i'm going ask you as you let it go here. you're down 15 plus%. what do you make of that and say to the share holders who have been fleeing today? >> would i say it's a moment in time and stay tuned. >> who is morphicle, a shareholder or a shop cher. >> i would say shareholders are morphicle than shoppers. >> all right. good to see you. head together close, about 40 minutes left here. still holding to the gains. >> the list of groups aposing new york city sugary drinks ban growing by the day. today a court is hearing arguments about whether the ban is even legal. a live update next. >> speaking of sugary drinks, coca-cola is underperforming the dow so far this year, but mcdonald's is eating up the
competiti competition. find out which blue chip stock is the better bet for your portfolio coming up in just a moment here. >> plus, fireworks on capitol hill today. >> what difference at this point does it make? it is our job to figure out what happened and do everything we can to prevent it from ever happening again. >> yeah. hillary clinton slamming her fist on the desk repeatedly. what was that all about? stick around to find out. [ male announcer ] ok, here's the way the system works. let's say you pay your guy around 2% to manage your money. that's not much you think. except it's 2% every year.
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what's going on in your part of the world right now? how would you characterize things in beijing and shanghai? >> well, you know, everything you hear from the media is negative, pollution is bad, corruption is bad, real estate is falling apart, all that. this is what is dominating the media, but actually we're still surviving there and we're still building there. >> that, of course, maria catching up with the ceo of chinese real estate giant soho. get full coverage of davos at davos.cnbc.com and stick around here because maria's got two huge interviews coming up today. you don't want to miss her one-on-ones with ubs chairman axel weber and jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon. jamesy is holding nothing back
today. an interview well worth sticking around for coming up today. >> people who want giant sodas are fighting back today against new york city's ban on supersized sugary drinks. details on a key court hearing. roseanne. >> reporter: hi there, michelle that. ban goes into effect march the 12th unless it is stopped by a new york state supreme court, and that court heard oral arguments today. it was the complaint was filed by a coalition of plaintiffs led by the american beverage association and it included others such as the restaurant association and a theater organization. now, as you know, this first of a kind ban was approved by the city's board of held, and it prohibits the sale of sugary drinks and sodas larger than 16 ounces under the board of health letter grading system. this applies to restaurants, pizzarias, delis and theaters
but not grocery stores or drug stores, and that is part of the complaint. the complaint alleges that the board of health exceeded its authority, that this ban is arbitrary and capricious and also that it is unfair to small businesses. now, some groups, civic and business groups researching minority members of the community say this ban is unfair. they are actually in court. part of the complaintants fighting to have this ban overturned. among them the naacp, the korean grocers association, also the coalition of hispanic chamber of commerce, and they say this unfairly discriminates against many minority-owned small businesses, small groceries and bodegas. on the other hand, the attorney for the board of health says the city is within its right, the city has its authority. the ban goes into effect unless the court determines otherwise.
back to you. >> thank you very much. so as new york continues the crackdown on junk food. should you get out of mcdonald's, for example, despite their better than expected, today, or will it be worse for coca-cola? let's talk numbers on that. on the technical side j.c. o'hara with phoenix partners group and on the fundamental side steve cortes with veracruz. j.c., what do you think of the charts, mcdonald's, coca-cola, who do you like? >> there's no such thing of looking at a chart coke and having a smile. a longer-term chart looks like the price will fall off of the sugar cliff. if you draw a trend line from the 2009 lows you'll see it rest right around 36. that also lines up with horizontal chart support. coca-cola right now is trading in the low $37 range. if any more weakness enters the chart we'll have serious technical damage so i'm staying away from coke so i'm looking at mcdonald's because i'm beginning to warm up to this chart. reason why. similar pattern, longer term up trend and was intact in october
and now it's fighting its darnedest to move back above the 94 level, a nice sustained close above 94. back in business for mcdonald's. >> steve, you want the coke with the fries, don't you? >> i do not, and i'll pass on the fries here actually, j.c. between these two companies in a fight, i want to take the coke polar bear to easily mall mcdonald's grimace and my main reason on the mcdonald's side too closely aligned with europe. if you part a chart of the euro currency over mcdonald's in the last few weeks, almost been an identical chart. that's because they are so europe-focused. i continue to believe europe has too many problems and far too many currencies risks for mcdonald's. coke is concentrated exactly where you want to be which is latin america. just this week the mexican stock market hit an all-time high. the latin america market for coke is bigger than the united states, twice as big as europe. between these two companies you want to bet on latin america and coke, not europe and mcdonald's. >> well, i'll tell you, the
entire trend and industry is moving away from the sugary drinks, and you saw that beverage sales in the u.s. were down 2.8% last year. we need to start moving towards the healthier drinks. that's what the consumer wants. now mcdonald's, albeit not the healthiest restaurant, but look what they are doing. they already were in the business of soft drinks. now they are moving. mr. fields, when he stepped down, he was an innovator and kept bringing new products to market and that's what mcdonald's is doing. 2013 is full of new products and it's the new products that will take the chart higher. >> you're right about the developed world and the u.s. but that's not true in latin america, betting on the thirsty mexican consumer and against mayor bloomberg. >> two consumer giants there. two of our favorite analyst giants as well with their thoughts on that. good to see you both. thanks for joining us. >> and they use real sugar in mexican coke. >> i like the mexican coke. delicious. >> sure do. dow jones industrial average is higher by 74 points. 13,786. we're about half an hour away from the closing bell. >> jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon
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with financial institutions around the world facing tightening regulations, maria is in davos, switzerland at the world economic forum talking to one of the industry's most influential bankers. take it away. maria. >> thanks so much, bill. i'm here in davos, and i am sitting down with axel weber, the former president of the bou bundes bank. let's talk about where things are going in financial services.
we talk so much about this push. news this week that regulators are looking at deutsche bank trying to get that bank to split up. a lot of pressure in terms of splitting plain vanilla deposit banking from riskier businesses. coming from where you come from, formerly a regulator, and now a leading change at ubs, how do you see this evolveing? >> well, you know, i came to ubs, we looked at ubs strategy and looked at the franchise and decided to focus the bank on what was the core to the franchise which was a leading global wealth management franchise. we have a very important asset management in our company, and we're the largest swiss retail bank and that is supported by an investment bank that in the future will be a lot more client focused, less complex, less risk-taking and doing much less proprietary trading and doing a lot more client-related business so we decided to make an investment bank light model, the model that supports our core business.
>> do you think that we will see more of a separation, bank by bank across the world? should there be an international standard? >> the industry at large will face many more challenges. there is now separating discussion between the -- between what is the utility part of the banks or the deposit taking part of the bank and investment banking. it's in the uk under the name of vickers, that is the proposal that is discussed there. there's a different proposal for the eu and a different debate in the u.s. they are not on the same page. what concerns me is that we operating in all of these jurisdictions as ubs will have to comply with different models in different jurisdictions so there's just no way at the moment that i'm seeing any more that what we started off as regulators to do, and that is creating a global level playing field for large complex global bank, that that's going to emerge at the end of the regulatory transition because by now, even though we started with the standards that are common, we're ending up with national
solutions for separating retail banks from investment banks, and they are going to look different all over the jurisdictions. >> where are we in terms of that recovery in 2013? what would be your expectation for the broad economy for the banking sector in terms of growth this year? >> i think by and large the global economy is going to, you know, come back to growth quite sizebly. i came back from china and after bottoming out at 7% is turning up. they are opening up for international banks. so china will lead the global growth environment, and everyone will come from the middle of their growth range more to the upper part of that range again. the u.s., having bottomed out at below 2% is going to grow around 2.5% in the next year and going forward in 2014 probably going to go back to 3%. things are picking up momentum but not in an accelerated way.
it's going to be a sluggish and muted recovery that we'll see, and the that's going to provide a challenging environment for banks because interest rates are globally at zero so the yield curves are flat and the transformation for banks doesn't work. clients are in very much a risk-off no activity moed mode. they are not investing to the same degree they have in the past. it's getting somewhat better. the start of the year has been actually surprisingly good but by and large the problems are there, not resolved so the environment is going to remain challenging. >> meanwhile so far, you know, we're seeing investors pour money into stocks globally, so from your standpoint looking at wealth management, where are investors placing their bets right now, and do you expect given these challenges in february and march that we will see a change not to create a stock picker out of you and to tell us where the markets are going, but what would you expect some of these challenges to do to what has been an incredibly vibrant stock market? >> absolutely. we've been moving to an overweight of equity some time
ago. for this year we clearly see corporate debt and equity as the asset classes that would perform better. there is a perception that they have overleveraged their balance sheet in sovereign debt and some of these sovereign debt pay promises are simply more critical now so going forward you will probably see u.s. high yields performing very well. equity is something that we recommend strongly in our investor base. given the fact that the u.s. will come back to 2014, you know, to around a 3% growth environment, overweighting the u.s. on bullish u.s. economy than any others. very bullish on asia and the emerging markets. >> i'll end on ubs. can you categorically say that the cuts are over? >> in terms of jobs. >> yes. >> we have a very clear and bold strategy that we've decided. we've announced around 10,000 job cuts over the next three
years. sergio armatti and i have fully discussed that strategy. the focus is on discipline and exaccuse of that strategy. the pickium of our stock price is in perfect execution and that's what we're focusing on now, executing the strategy that we have. we want to make it clear to those who work in the bank and have a future in the bake that the business lines they are in will be the future of ubs, made that clear and that's what we now focus on. really doing a transformational change at ubs and de-risking the bank and making it less complex and making it client focused. we all talk about clients. we're doing it. >> dr. axel weber, good to have you on the program. thank you so much for joining us. bill, i'll send it back for you. >> maria, thank you very much. they were wearing overcoats. >> he's a warm-blooded guy. >> hot under the collar. stick around because maria will be talking about jamie dimon and jpmorgan chase later in the program, and he's hot under the collar on some things. >> and not wearing an overcoat
it appears for some reason. >> about 20 minutes before the closing bell. the dow jones industrial average is higher by 73 points while the daze knack is higher by 12. >> this -- well, any positive close is a new five-year high. another day, another five-year high for the dow and s&p. now we're getting into the zip code of all-time high territory. does it mean it's time for the bears to give up? we'll talk about that coming up here? >> after the bell this, could get us to new highs faster or really back us off in a hurry. apple's earnings are out. netflix as well set to report earnings. the results could drive markets in either direction, particularly apple. instant analysis of all the numbers coming up.
is. michelle was just commenting on how chilly it's become in the northeast. >> yes, i was. >> we have a deep freeze that's hit the markets and sharon epperson here with a happy story about how it's going to cost more to heat our home as a result, right? go ahead, sharon. >> yes. >> >> reporter: i'm sharon epperson here at the nymex, and we're looking at natural gas. definitely has had a reaction here to the cold weather.
half of the country is fueled by natural gas heating their homes so the heating demand definitely ticking up with temperatures in the single digits here along the east coast in the middle the part of the country. these cold temperatures expected to remain for the next four to five days and the other key factor that's going to impact where natural gas and heating oil futures stand is what's happens with the energy department reports tomorrow. we do have the petroleum inventory report as well as natural gas stores report. both of those key to the energy trade in the session ahead. back to you. >> all right. sharon epperson minus an ear piece, apparently, but a good report. thank you very much. >> the winning streak for the equity markets just keeps on going. it's green across the board again for all three major averages in today's session. our own jeff cox points out this is the longest streak since 1990. a bull market with no correction. >> a 10% decline. >> right. >> pullback of some kind. >> jeff worries that the bears have given up, and that could mean soon that things go the other way, but does that -- our panel agree with that? joining us along with jeff our
guests. jeff, all is bullish, as we've talked about this. you feel like we're getting a little too complacent about this as we get closer to all-time highs, right? >> yeah, bill. let me point out a couple of things. three things that have me concerned. we talk about this wall of worry in the markets and a wall of worry is a good thing for investors to climb over. means they are paying attention and not ignoring the bad news. what bad news am i talking about? very discouraged by the earnings season. talking a couple months ago about double-digit earnings growth and now talking about maybe 3% for the earnings growth for the s&p 500 so i think that's very troubling so what's it all mean? look, as you point out before, this is a long in the tooth rally. >> it's the tenth longest rally ever without a correction. i don't think any investor would be blamed right now for taking a little profit, taking some breath and standing back and say where are we going with this thing? >> anthony, what do you think? >> if you look at the outlook for 2013 and 2014, what you see
is 2014 will be a little bit better. let not lose site of the fact that companies are getting more efficient. certainly since the year 2000, if you look at the growth in corporate profits and the economy, two-third of the time -- >> i've got 11 month to get there. 11 months to get to 2014. >> if that trend continues, that's positive. >> is that what the stock market is telling us now. >> i think the stock market is telling you next year it's going to be eastern better and the economy is growing. >> 2014 is so good you keep buying stocks now? >> i said it's going to get better than 2013 from economic growth. >> jeff is saying we've gotten too complacent. should we worry about corrections? >> corrections are always normal. >> doesn't want to answer. >> things don't move in a straight line. >> we're not saying a correction can't come. we're saying over the next couple of years things will be better. >> what do you think is going on? >> i do think correction is likely. i, too, want to point out one thing. never been a pier of time where there was any correlation in any given year between earnings growth and stock market
performance. it's completely uncore rated. >> got to be true over time. >> apples earnings are really great and the stock has gone up tremendously. google earnings great and the earnings have gone up tremendously. >> earnings are the lifeblood of a corporation. >> absolutely. over a period of ten years there is a tight correlation. over a period of one year there's zero but what matters is surprise. here's the most encouraging part. if you look at consensus expectations, this year people expect revenue growth for corporations worldwide to be 3%. i think corporations will beat that as we move through the year. that's what drives the markets. what i would be really nervous about, what would cause me to sell the market more aggressively is if the expectations for earnings growth and sales growth have become too aggressive. we're not there yet. do have complacency. complacency, well be punished in the short term, but until everybody starts to become aggressive about fundamentals, still have a little bit of time. >> i feel like i have no clarify. jeff? >> still don't know how hot it will be there tomorrow. >> like i said before, we're talking about 11% earnings
growth for this quarter. now we already have three-quarters of the s&p 500 lowering their forecast for the first quarter of 2013. i'm looking at some of these investor sentiment surveys. the investor intelligence reports, 53 to 22 bulls and bears. there back in september. had a 7% pullback after that, and just kind of -- the farm flows are getting more aggressive. i do think we've gotten ahead of ourselves. the market as a discounting mechanism is going to look forward and say, you know what? we are getting a little ahead of ourselves. >> is it really girly if i point out lucky 7s on the dow. >> better you than me. >> yes. continuing higher. any positive close for the s&p and dow are five-year highs going back to the fall of 2007. what's going to take us higher here, quickly, best investment idea right now? >> technology surprise in the second half of the year. >> what do you tell investors, anthony? >> i think the housing market is still going to recover, exciting theme and spot the view of
technology because technology has been a laggard and now profits may start to come, that's a good thing. >> even those earnings don't matter. >> over the short term, no. >> all right. >> good to see you both. >> jeff, thanks very much as well for your thoughts as well. >> heading towards the close with 12 minutes left here, and, yes, the dow, it's holding. 13,777. >> all poker players here. if you think boeing's problems with the dreamliner are bad now, the senate is getting involved. >> be afraid, be very afraid. phil lebeau with all the details next. >> and don't miss maria's exclusive interview with jamie dimon on tape from davos, finally had it with the bad reputation pages have right now and today he's fighting back. wait until you hear what he told maria. that's coming up. stay stupid. i have a cold, and i took nyquil,
still down since its dreamliner nightmare began, and now the senate is looking into the situation. phil lebeau has the latest on this situation. phil? >> reporter: today is a day when we heard from the secretary of transportation, and one question he received in washington today is when will they possibly lift the grounding on the dreamliner? by all indications, he says they are a ways from that happening. >> i'm not going to comment on any of this in the middle of their review. frankly, i haven't talked to them, number one, and i don't know if michael has or not. look. we need to let them finish their work. >> the them is the investigators to the faa and the head of the f-say toys there's no indication when it will lift the dreamliner grounding but it was the second event in japan that prompted them to ground the dreamliner. >> the second incident happened in flight and that for us was an
important consideration where we needed to identify what is causing these power and batteriled incidents and ensured we've taken every action to ensure they don't happen. >> reporter: it's been almost a ounding and look at the chart, guys. shares of boeing since then are up. you might think they would be down once the dreamliner was grounded but they are up since the 17th. by the way, guys, hoping to get some information from the ntsb regarding the status of its investigation perhaps a little later today or tomorrow. back to you. >> very good, phil. thank you very much. i'm reminded of the famous line of ronald reagan. he said the scariest words you've ever heard is i'm from the government and i'm here to help. >> had a lot of good ones. >> he did. >> coming up next, coming right back with the closing countdown. >> and if you think the housing market is the key to the economy, jpmorgan's ceo has good news he's telling maria bartiromo. listen. >> housing has totally bottomed and getting better. you saw today homes for sales coming down there's a short
supply in some market and they are all leading indicators. >> what else is jamie bullish on? find out in maria's exclusive interview coming up. if phone calls are the key for apple earnings, will they be strong enough to lift the stock? we'll learn later today. instant analysis and investor reaction to the numbers on the "closing bell." a better placeom, we'd to handle your legal needs. maybe you have questions about incorporating a business you'd like to start. or questions about protecting your family with a will or living trust. and you'd like to find the right attorney to help guide you along, answer any questions and offer advice. with an "a" rating from the better business bureau legalzoom helps you get personalized and affordable legal protection. in most states, a legal plan attorney is available with every personalized document to answer any questions. get started at legalzoom.com today. and now you're protected. ♪ [ male announcer ] every car we build must make adrenaline pump and pulses quicken.
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coming up at the two-minute mark, the dow hasn't been above 14,000 since december i think of 2007. no, october of 2007, and today we're getting ever closer, up another 65 points or half a percent at 13,777. the s&p hasn't been at 1,500 since december of 2007. we're very chose to that, another two-point gain to 1494 today. now we wait for a couple of big earnings reports, especially from a. the street is looking for $13.47, but numbers are higher than that and everybody wants to know how many iphones they sold and how many versions. ipad. all coming up in a few minutes and it's up 9.53 ahead of that number. netflix also coming out next hour. they are looking for a loss of 13 cents. this thing has been on a tear lately, and the it's up another 5% right now ahead of the close. my friend matthew cheslock, you've been skeptical. this market continues higher, a